Will Turkey help Assad against the Syrian Kurds?

Yesterday some activists circulated images showing many dead bodies paraded in Afrin.

The Kurds and the Army of Revolutionaries (AR) have denounced that and considered it an isolated incidence.

This statement by the AR explains the story of those dead bodies. Those people were killed during a big surprise attack by moderate jihadists against positions of the AR near Afrin. The Kurds of Afrin intervened and supported the AR. The result was a resounding victory for the AR and the Kurds.

The AR blames Turkey for the attack (see this and this).

Some of the jihadists that were killed in this attack are from Homs. It seems that Turkey is shipping jihadists from all around Syria to fight the Kurds and AR near Aleppo.

This infighting among the opposition happens as Assad and Iran are preparing a big attack on Aleppo.

The Turks can deal a big blow to Assad and Iran if they unite the jihadists with the Kurds and their allies, but the Turks do not want to do that, because defeating Assad is not their priority in Syria. It is quite likely that the Turks will decide at some point to cooperate with Assad and Iran against the Kurds. The Russians believe that the Turks will eventually do that, and this is the reason for why the Russians keep offering support to the Kurds. The Russians have no real interest in supporting the Kurds. They only offer them support because they want to pressure the Turks into cooperating with Assad and Iran.

Assad, Iran, and Russia believe that Turkey will eventually help them to put all of Syria back in Assad’s hands. The behavior of Turkey indicates that they are not mistaken in that belief.

While the US is constantly blamed for its policy on Syria, it seems that the US right now is the only country that is seriously working against Assad. The US supports moderate opposition in Syria. That is the only thing that can really hurt Assad.

The US is working now on two fronts in Syria: it is trying to keep the truce, and it is supporting a moderate opposition inside Syria. Keeping the truce is a very good idea because it paralyzes Assad and Iran and prevents them from making more ‘gains’ (that is, more massacres and population cleansing). Supporting a moderate opposition inside Syria is also very helpful. The main reason for why Assad has not fallen is that there has not been a strong and organized moderate opposition inside the country.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s